Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Rays:
- Injuries. Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Yankees 4-3.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Rays and was a major factor: Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees are 42-30 at home this season; Rays are 33-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- The Yankees are without 4 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Yankees
Rays
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 44% win probability, while Rays has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.