MLB2026 season
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Oct 7, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- MIL at SDWed, Oct 7, 2026SD 52%MIL 3–1
- MIL at SDTue, Oct 6, 2026SD 51%SD 3–4
- SD at MILSun, Oct 4, 2026MIL 59%MIL 3–4
- SD at MILSat, Oct 3, 2026MIL 58%MIL 2–3
- SD at MILThu, May 14, 2026MIL 55%MIL 1–7
- SD at MILWed, May 13, 2026MIL 55%SD 3–1
- SD at MILTue, May 12, 2026MIL 55%MIL 4–6
- SD at MILSat, Mar 21, 2026MIL 55%MIL 1–6
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
75%
6 of 8 decided games
Meetings graded
8
2026
Correct calls
6
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Injuries — Brewers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Rays 6 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency — Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Rays (4.5 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Brewers are 54-26 at home this season; Rays are 36-42 on the road
San Diego Padres
- Injuries — Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Padres are 46-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-31 on the road
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