Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Padres:
- Injuries. Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Padres are 45-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-30 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Brewers 4-3.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Padres and was a major factor: Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.5 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Brewers and was a contributing factor: Brewers pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Padres (4.2 RA/G)
- The Brewers are without 5 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Diego Padres
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- ELO RatingFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Recent FormFavors Milwaukee Brewers
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Padres
Brewers
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Padres
No injuries reported
Brewers
Key Players
Brewers
Padres
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 51% win probability, while Brewers has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.