MLB2026 season
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Oct 7, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- TB at NYYWed, Oct 7, 2026NYY 44%TB 4–3
- NYY at TBMon, Oct 5, 2026TB 66%TB 2–5
- NYY at TBSat, Oct 3, 2026TB 64%TB 0–1
- TB at NYYThu, Sep 24, 2026NYY 46%NYY 4–6
- TB at NYYWed, Sep 23, 2026NYY 54%NYY 2–9
- TB at NYYTue, Sep 22, 2026—TB 6–1
- TB at NYYTue, Sep 22, 2026—NYY 0–2
- NYY at TBThu, Jul 9, 2026TB 55%NYY 12–4
- NYY at TBWed, Jul 8, 2026TB 55%TB 0–3
- NYY at TBTue, Jul 7, 2026TB 55%TB 4–6
- NYY at TBMon, Jul 6, 2026TB 55%NYY 5–1
- TB at NYYSun, May 24, 2026NYY 55%NYY 0–2
- TB at NYYFri, May 22, 2026NYY 53%TB 4–2
- NYY at TBSun, Apr 12, 2026TB 55%TB 4–5
- NYY at TBSat, Apr 11, 2026TB 55%TB 4–5
- NYY at TBFri, Apr 10, 2026TB 57%TB 3–5
- NYY at TBTue, Mar 17, 2026TB 55%NYY 3–2
- TB at NYYFri, Mar 6, 2026—NYY 0–3
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
67%
10 of 15 decided games
Meetings graded
15
2026
Correct calls
10
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
New York Yankees
- Defensive Efficiency — Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Yankees are 42-30 at home this season; Rays are 33-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Tampa Bay Rays
No recent factors yet.
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