New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 64% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rays:
- Injuries. Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Rays are 49-21 at home this season; Yankees are 41-35 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Yankees 1-0.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 64% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Rays and was a major factor: Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rays and was a notable factor: Rays are 49-21 at home this season; Yankees are 41-35 on the road
- The Yankees are without 4 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Rest DaysFavors New York Yankees
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Rays
Yankees
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Rays
No injuries reported
Yankees
Key Players
Yankees
Rays
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 64% win probability, while Yankees has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.