MLB report card: week of 2026-09-28 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
85.7%
hit rate
0.176
Brier score
12 of 14 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Chicago White Sox at GuardiansCLE 64.4% pre-game — final CLE 0–CWS 3
- Phillies at BravesATL 52.5% pre-game — final ATL 3–PHI 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Braves at DodgersLAD 76.3% pre-game — final LAD 5–ATL 3
- Red Sox at YankeesNYY 72.8% pre-game — final NYY 9–BOS 2
- Red Sox at YankeesNYY 71.9% pre-game — final NYY 9–BOS 0
- Yankees at RaysTB 64.4% pre-game — final TB 1–NYY 0
- Chicago White Sox at AstrosCWS 61.8% pre-game — final HOU 3–CWS 7
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies at Braves Tue, Sep 29 | ATL 52.0% · PHI 47.9% | ATL 5–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Astros Tue, Sep 29 | HOU 38.6% · CWS 61.4% | HOU 3–CWS 6 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Wed, Sep 30 | NYY 71.9% · BOS 28.1% | NYY 9–BOS 0 | Hit |
| Cubs at Padres Wed, Sep 30 | SD 59.0% · CHC 41.0% | SD 8–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Phillies at Braves Wed, Sep 30 | ATL 52.5% · PHI 47.5% | ATL 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Astros Wed, Sep 30 | HOU 38.2% · CWS 61.8% | HOU 3–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Thu, Oct 1 | NYY 72.8% · BOS 27.2% | NYY 9–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Padres Thu, Oct 1 | SD 59.6% · CHC 40.4% | SD 4–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Braves Fri, Oct 2 | ATL 52.2% · PHI 47.8% | ATL 6–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sat, Oct 3 | CLE 64.4% · CWS 35.6% | CLE 0–CWS 3 | Miss |
| Braves at Dodgers Sat, Oct 3 | LAD 76.3% · ATL 23.7% | LAD 5–ATL 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Sat, Oct 3 | TB 64.4% · NYY 35.6% | TB 1–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Sun, Oct 4 | MIL 57.5% · SD 42.5% | MIL 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Sun, Oct 4 | MIL 59.0% · SD 41.0% | MIL 4–SD 3 | Hit |
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