Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 53% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Braves:
- Defensive Efficiency. Braves pitching/defense (3.9 RA/G) better than Phillies (4.3 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Braves are 49-22 at home this season; Phillies are 36-35 on the road
- Offensive Efficiency. Braves offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Phillies (4.4 R/G)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Phillies defeated the Braves 4-3.
Our model predicted the Braves would win with 53% confidence, but the Phillies pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Phillies and was a major factor: Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Braves and was a contributing factor: Braves pitching/defense (3.9 RA/G) better than Phillies (4.3 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Braves and was a notable factor: Braves are 49-22 at home this season; Phillies are 36-35 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Braves have 10 player(s) ruled out, while the Phillies have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Phillies won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Braves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Braves
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Braves
- ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Braves
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Braves
Phillies
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Braves | Phillies | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +439 | -720 | +1.5 | 5.5 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -160 | +1.5 | 7.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Phillies
Braves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Braves has a 53% win probability, while Phillies has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.