Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Padres:
- Injuries. Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Cubs 11 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Padres are 44-31 at home this season; Cubs are 40-35 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency. Padres pitching/defense (4.2 RA/G) better than Cubs (4.3 RA/G)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Cubs 4-1.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Padres and was a major factor: Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Cubs 11 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Cubs offense (5.2 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.5 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Padres and was a notable factor: Padres are 44-31 at home this season; Cubs are 40-35 on the road
- The Cubs are without 11 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Diego Padres
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Cubs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Diego Padres
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Padres
Cubs
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Cubs 11 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Padres
No injuries reported
Cubs
Key Players
Cubs
Padres
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 60% win probability, while Cubs has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.