Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 73% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Yankees:
- Injuries. Yankees healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Red Sox 12 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency. Yankees offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Yankees are 41-30 at home this season; Red Sox are 38-33 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Red Sox 9-2.
Our model predicted the Yankees would win with 73% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Yankees and was a major factor: Yankees healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Red Sox 12 out, 0 doubtful
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees are 41-30 at home this season; Red Sox are 38-33 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Yankees have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Red Sox have 12.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors New York Yankees
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- ELO RatingFavors Boston Red Sox
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Yankees healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Red Sox 12 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Yankees
Red Sox
Key Players
Red Sox
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 73% win probability, while Red Sox has a 27% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.