MLB2026 season
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Sep 30, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- CHC at SDWed, Sep 30, 2026SD 60%SD 1–4
- CHC at SDTue, Sep 29, 2026SD 59%SD 0–8
- SD at CHCWed, Jul 1, 2026CHC 53%CHC 3–23
- SD at CHCTue, Jun 30, 2026CHC 53%CHC 7–9
- SD at CHCMon, Jun 29, 2026CHC 53%CHC 2–3
- CHC at SDWed, Apr 29, 2026SD 55%CHC 5–4
- CHC at SDTue, Apr 28, 2026SD 55%CHC 8–3
- CHC at SDMon, Apr 27, 2026SD 55%SD 7–9
- CHC at SDFri, Mar 6, 2026SD 56%SD 0–3
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
78%
7 of 9 decided games
Meetings graded
9
2026
Correct calls
7
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Chicago Cubs
- Offensive Efficiency — Cubs offense (5.2 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.5 R/G)
San Diego Padres
- Injuries — Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Padres are 46-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-31 on the road
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