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Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Chicago White Sox

MLBpostseason • 2026-2027 Season
Scheduled
Chicago White Sox logo
Chicago White Sox
Chicago
0
vs
Guardians logo
Guardians
Cleveland
0
CWS 61%39% CLE
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Chicago Chicago White Sox 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Chicago White Sox:

  • Offensive Efficiency. Chicago White Sox offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.2 R/G)
  • Home Field Advantage. Chicago White Sox are 45-27 at home this season; Guardians are 38-33 on the road
  • ELO Rating. Chicago White Sox ELO 1547 vs Guardians ELO 1500 (diff: +47)

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VenueRate Field
Chicago, Illinois

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Guardians (away)
Chicago White Sox (home)
39%
Win probability
61%
0
High-impact factors
0
3
Players ruled out
8

Game Preview

Guardians at Chicago White Sox

The Guardians visit the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois in 2026-2027 MLB postseason play.

Our model gives the Chicago White Sox a 61% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Guardians will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Chicago White Sox (medium): Chicago White Sox offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.2 R/G)
  • Defensive Efficiency favors the Guardians (low): Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Chicago White Sox (4.4 RA/G)
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Chicago White Sox (medium): Chicago White Sox are 45-27 at home this season; Guardians are 38-33 on the road
Chicago White Sox61%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Offensive Efficiency
Favors CWS

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
  • Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Guardians
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
  • ELO RatingFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
  • Recent FormNeutral
  • Rest DaysNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

CLE
CWS
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Recent Form
Favours CLE|Favours CWS

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Chicago White Sox

Our Model61%

Guardians

Our Model39%

Understanding the win probability calculation

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/7/2026, 8:45:00 AM

Chicago White Sox

Joey BartC(Hand)
OUT
Tanner MurrayLF(Shoulder)
OUT
Brooks BaldwinLF(Elbow)
OUT
Mike VasilRP(Elbow)
OUT
Prelander BerroaRP(Elbow)
OUT
Jordan LeasureRP(Forearm)
OUT
Luis CastilloSP(Shoulder)
OUT
Ky BushSP(Elbow)
OUT

Guardians

Rhys Hoskins1B(Back)
OUT
Colin HoldermanRP(Wrist)
OUT
Andrew WaltersRP(Elbow)
OUT

Key Players

Guardians

Logan AllenSP
Joey CantilloSP
Gavin WilliamsSP
Slade CecconiSP
Austin PetersonSP

Chicago White Sox

Noah SchultzSP
Sean BurkeSP
Erick FeddeSP
Anthony KaySP
Luis CastilloSPOUT
0.0% win prob impact

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Deep Dive

MLB Weather Impact

How wind and temperature affect baseball outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Chicago White Sox has a 61% win probability, while Guardians has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois.

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