Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pirates:
- Rest Days. Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: PIT 56% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 58% (−4)
Win probability movement
PIT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Phillies defeated the Pirates 11-9.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 62% confidence, but the Phillies won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Pirates and was a major factor: Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pirates and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Phillies won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Phillies
Pirates
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pirates has a 62% win probability, while Phillies has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.