Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Braves:
- Defensive Efficiency. Braves pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency. Braves offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Reds (4.1 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Braves are 48-21 at home this season; Reds are 31-39 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Reds defeated the Braves 7-6.
Our model predicted the Braves would win with 71% confidence, but the Reds pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Braves and was a major factor: Braves pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Injuries favored the Reds and was a major factor: Reds healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Braves and was a notable factor: Braves offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Reds (4.1 R/G)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Braves have 10 player(s) ruled out, while the Reds have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Reds won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Braves
- InjuriesFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Braves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Braves
- ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Braves
- Recent FormFavors Atlanta Braves
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Braves pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
Offensive Efficiency
Braves offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Reds (4.1 R/G)
Recent Form
Braves (93-65) in better form than Reds (73-85)
Injuries
Reds healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Braves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Braves has a 71% win probability, while Reds has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.