Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Brewers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Phillies (4.5 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency. Brewers pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Phillies (4.3 RA/G)
- ELO Rating. Phillies ELO 1520 vs Brewers ELO 1577 (diff: -57)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Brewers defeated the Phillies 5-1.
Our model predicted the Brewers would win with 62% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Phillies (4.5 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Brewers and was a contributing factor: Brewers pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Phillies (4.3 RA/G)
- Injuries favored the Phillies and was a contributing factor: Phillies healthier (6 out, 0 doubtful) vs Brewers (6 out, 0 doubtful)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Phillies have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Brewers have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Brewers won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- InjuriesFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- ELO RatingFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Recent FormFavors Milwaukee Brewers
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Brewers
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 38% win probability, while Brewers has a 62% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.