St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Brewers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Brewers pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Cardinals (4.6 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency. Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
- ELO Rating. Brewers ELO 1587 vs Cardinals ELO 1475 (diff: +112)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Brewers defeated the Cardinals 3-2.
Our model predicted the Brewers would win with 75% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Brewers pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Cardinals (4.6 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
- Injuries favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Cardinals healthier (6 out, 0 doubtful) vs Brewers (6 out, 0 doubtful)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Brewers have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Cardinals have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Brewers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- InjuriesFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- ELO RatingFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Recent FormFavors Milwaukee Brewers
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Brewers
Cardinals
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Brewers | Cardinals | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -238 | +193 | -1.5 | 7 |
| FanDuel | -162 | +126 | -1.5 | 6.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cardinals
Brewers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Brewers has a 75% win probability, while Cardinals has a 25% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.