NHL report card: week of 2026-03-30 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
60.0%
hit rate
0.243
Brier score
33 of 55 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Canucks at AvalancheCOL 71.7% pre-game — final COL 6–VAN 8
- Blues at DucksANA 60.3% pre-game — final ANA 2–STL 6
- Jets at Blue JacketsCBJ 59.9% pre-game — final CBJ 1–WPG 2
- Canadiens at LightningTBL 59.8% pre-game — final TBL 1–MTL 4
- Devils at CanadiensMTL 59.3% pre-game — final MTL 0–NJD 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Flames at AvalancheCOL 68.5% pre-game — final COL 9–CGY 2
- Canucks at WildMIN 63.5% pre-game — final MIN 5–VAN 2
- Hurricanes at SenatorsOTT 62.3% pre-game — final OTT 6–CAR 3
- Bruins at FlyersPHI 62.3% pre-game — final PHI 2–BOS 1
- Canucks at Golden KnightsVGK 60.9% pre-game — final VGK 4–VAN 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penguins at Islanders Mon, Mar 30 | NYI 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | NYI 3–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Flames at Avalanche Tue, Mar 31 | COL 68.5% · CGY 31.5% | COL 9–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Blues at Sharks Tue, Mar 31 | SJS 59.0% · STL 41.0% | SJS 5–STL 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Ducks Tue, Mar 31 | ANA 58.1% · TOR 41.9% | ANA 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Canucks at Golden Knights Tue, Mar 31 | VGK 60.9% · VAN 39.1% | VGK 4–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Tue, Mar 31 | TBL 59.8% · MTL 40.2% | TBL 1–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Islanders at Sabres Tue, Mar 31 | BUF 58.5% · NYI 41.5% | BUF 4–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Senators at Panthers Tue, Mar 31 | FLA 53.1% · OTT 46.9% | FLA 6–OTT 3 | Hit |
| Devils at Rangers Tue, Mar 31 | NYR 56.3% · NJD 43.7% | NYR 4–NJD 1 | Hit |
| Stars at Bruins Tue, Mar 31 | BOS 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | BOS 6–DAL 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Capitals Tue, Mar 31 | WSH 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | WSH 6–PHI 4 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Penguins Tue, Mar 31 | PIT 54.6% · DET 45.4% | PIT 5–DET 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blue Jackets Tue, Mar 31 | CBJ 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | CBJ 2–CAR 5 | Miss |
| Jets at Blackhawks Wed, Apr 1 | CHI 55.9% · WPG 44.1% | CHI 3–WPG 4 | Miss |
| Kraken at Oilers Wed, Apr 1 | EDM 56.3% · SEA 43.7% | EDM 3–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Canucks at Avalanche Thu, Apr 2 | COL 71.7% · VAN 28.3% | COL 6–VAN 8 | Miss |
| Ducks at Sharks Thu, Apr 2 | SJS 55.0% · ANA 45.0% | SJS 4–ANA 3 | Hit |
| Blues at Kings Thu, Apr 2 | LAK 59.8% · STL 40.2% | LAK 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Rangers Thu, Apr 2 | NYR 56.3% · MTL 43.7% | NYR 2–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Sabres at Senators Thu, Apr 2 | OTT 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | OTT 4–BUF 1 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Flyers Thu, Apr 2 | PHI 56.3% · DET 43.7% | PHI 2–DET 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Hurricanes Thu, Apr 2 | CAR 56.3% · CBJ 43.7% | CAR 5–CBJ 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Panthers Thu, Apr 2 | FLA 52.5% · BOS 47.5% | FLA 2–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Penguins at Lightning Thu, Apr 2 | TBL 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | TBL 6–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Devils Thu, Apr 2 | NJD 53.7% · WSH 46.3% | NJD 7–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Canucks at Wild Fri, Apr 3 | MIN 63.5% · VAN 36.5% | MIN 5–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Jets at Stars Fri, Apr 3 | DAL 58.1% · WPG 41.9% | DAL 3–WPG 0 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Oilers Fri, Apr 3 | EDM 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | EDM 3–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Sharks Fri, Apr 3 | SJS 54.7% · TOR 45.3% | SJS 4–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Kraken Fri, Apr 3 | SEA 56.8% · UTA 43.2% | SEA 2–UTA 6 | Miss |
| Flames at Golden Knights Fri, Apr 3 | VGK 58.9% · CGY 41.1% | VGK 6–CGY 3 | Hit |
| Predators at Kings Fri, Apr 3 | LAK 55.6% · NSH 44.4% | LAK 4–NSH 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Islanders Fri, Apr 3 | NYI 58.5% · PHI 41.5% | NYI 1–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Blues at Ducks Sat, Apr 4 | ANA 60.3% · STL 39.7% | ANA 2–STL 6 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Rangers Sat, Apr 4 | NYR 56.3% · DET 43.7% | NYR 4–DET 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Senators Sat, Apr 4 | OTT 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | OTT 1–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Stars Sat, Apr 4 | DAL 54.6% · COL 45.4% | DAL 0–COL 2 | Miss |
| Panthers at Penguins Sat, Apr 4 | PIT 56.3% · FLA 43.7% | PIT 9–FLA 4 | Hit |
| Bruins at Lightning Sat, Apr 4 | TBL 59.7% · BOS 40.3% | TBL 3–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Islanders at Hurricanes Sat, Apr 4 | CAR 58.1% · NYI 41.9% | CAR 4–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Kings Sat, Apr 4 | LAK 56.4% · TOR 43.6% | LAK 7–TOR 6 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Canucks Sat, Apr 4 | VAN 47.0% · UTA 53.0% | VAN 4–UTA 7 | Hit |
| Jets at Blue Jackets Sat, Apr 4 | CBJ 59.9% · WPG 40.1% | CBJ 1–WPG 2 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Devils Sat, Apr 4 | NJD 51.6% · MTL 48.4% | NJD 3–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Capitals Sat, Apr 4 | WSH 54.6% · BUF 45.4% | WSH 6–BUF 2 | Hit |
| Predators at Sharks Sun, Apr 5 | SJS 59.0% · NSH 41.0% | SJS 3–NSH 6 | Miss |
| Flames at Ducks Sun, Apr 5 | ANA 56.6% · CGY 43.4% | ANA 3–CGY 5 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Kraken Sun, Apr 5 | SEA 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | SEA 2–CHI 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Oilers Sun, Apr 5 | EDM 55.4% · VGK 44.6% | EDM 1–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Wild at Red Wings Sun, Apr 5 | DET 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | DET 4–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Penguins Sun, Apr 5 | PIT 56.3% · FLA 43.7% | PIT 5–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Flyers Sun, Apr 5 | PHI 62.3% · BOS 37.8% | PHI 2–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Senators Sun, Apr 5 | OTT 62.3% · CAR 37.8% | OTT 6–CAR 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Rangers Sun, Apr 5 | NYR 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | NYR 8–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Devils at Canadiens Sun, Apr 5 | MTL 59.3% · NJD 40.7% | MTL 0–NJD 3 | Miss |
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