Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Oilers:
- Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: EDM 52% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 56% (+1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 54% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: EDM 55% (0)
Win probability movement
EDM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Golden Knights defeated the Oilers 5-1.
Our model predicted the Oilers would win with 55% confidence, but the Golden Knights won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oilers and was a contributing factor: Oilers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.4 vs 3.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.5 vs 3.3 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Golden Knights won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Golden Knights
Oilers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 55% win probability, while Golden Knights has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.