Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Canucks (2.6 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 65% (−7)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 65% (−7)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 65% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 65% (−7)
Win probability movement
COL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canucks defeated the Avalanche 8-6.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 72% confidence, but the Canucks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Canucks (2.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canucks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Rest DaysFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Avalanche
Canucks
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Canucks
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 72% win probability, while Canucks has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.