Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Kings:
- Home Field Advantage. Kings are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Kings defense (2.9 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAK 52% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAK 57% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAK 54% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: LAK 56% (0)
Win probability movement
LAK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Kings defeated the Maple Leafs 7-6.
Our model predicted the Kings would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Kings and was a notable factor: Kings are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs offense (3.2 PPG) outpaces Kings (2.6 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Kings and was a contributing factor: Kings defense (2.9 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Kings won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Kings
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Kings
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 56% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA.