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Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHLregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Lightning logo
Lightning
Tampa Bay
3
vs
Bruins logo
Bruins
Boston
1
TBL 99%1% BOS
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Bruins (away)
Lightning (home)
1%
Win probability
99%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Lightning defeated the Bruins 3-1.

Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 99% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Lightning

Our Model99%

Bruins

Our Model1%

Odds by Sportsbook

SourceLightningBruinsSpreadO/U
----
FanDuel-192+158-1.56.5

Key Players

Bruins

Luke CavallinG
Simon ZajicekG
Yuri IvanovG
Joonas KorpisaloG
Jiri PateraG

Lightning

Jonas JohanssonG
Mads SogaardG
Kyle KoninG
Harrison MeneghinG
Dennis HildebyG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Frequently Asked Questions

Lightning has a 99% win probability, while Bruins has a 1% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.

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Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning - Apr 4, 2026 - NHL | PlayDecoded