Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Penguins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 50% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: PIT 56% (+1)
Win probability movement
PIT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Penguins defeated the Red Wings 5-1.
Our model predicted the Penguins would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Penguins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Red Wings and was a contributing factor: Red Wings rest advantage (2 days rest) over Penguins (1 day rest)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Penguins won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Red Wings
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Red Wings
Penguins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Penguins has a 55% win probability, while Red Wings has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.