Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OTT 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
OTT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Wild defeated the Senators 4-1.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 56% confidence, but the Wild won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Senators (0 out) vs Wild (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Senators (1 day rest) vs Wild (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Wild won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Senators
Wild
Odds by Source
| Source | Senators | Wild | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - | |
| DraftKings | -125 | +105 | -1.5 | 6.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Wild
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 56% win probability, while Wild has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.