Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Stars:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DAL 50% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: DAL 56% (+1)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Avalanche defeated the Stars 2-0.
Our model predicted the Stars would win with 55% confidence, but the Avalanche won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Stars and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche rest advantage (2 days rest) over Stars (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Avalanche won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Stars
- Rest DaysFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Stars
Avalanche
Odds by Source
| Source | Stars | Avalanche | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - | |
| FanDuel | -105 | -114 | +1.5 | 6.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Avalanche
Stars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Stars has a 55% win probability, while Avalanche has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.