Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
TBL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Penguins 6-3.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Turnover Differential was neutral and a contributing factor: No turnover stats available for comparison
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Lightning
Penguins
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Penguins
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 56% win probability, while Penguins has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.