Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Golden Knights:
- Home Field Advantage. Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency. Golden Knights offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Recent Form. Golden Knights (29-20) in better form than Flames (24-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: VGK 55% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: VGK 55% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: VGK 57% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: VGK 58% (−1)
Win probability movement
VGK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Golden Knights defeated the Flames 6-3.
Our model predicted the Golden Knights would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Golden Knights and was a contributing factor: Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Golden Knights and was a contributing factor: Golden Knights offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Golden Knights and was a contributing factor: Golden Knights (29-20) in better form than Flames (24-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Golden Knights won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Recent FormFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Flames
Golden Knights
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Knights has a 59% win probability, while Flames has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.