Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Ducks:
- Home Field Advantage. Ducks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency. Ducks offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Recent Form. Ducks (35-24) in better form than Flames (24-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ANA 53% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 53% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: ANA 58% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ANA 54% (−3)
Win probability movement
ANA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flames defeated the Ducks 5-3.
Our model predicted the Ducks would win with 57% confidence, but the Flames won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Ducks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Ducks offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Rest Days favored the Flames and was a contributing factor: Flames rest advantage (2 days rest) over Ducks (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flames won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Rest DaysFavors Calgary Flames
- Recent FormFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Calgary Flames
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Ducks
Flames
Odds by Source
| Source | Ducks | Flames | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - | |
| FanDuel | -150 | +125 | -1.5 | 6.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Flames
Ducks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Ducks has a 57% win probability, while Flames has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.