St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Sharks:
- Home Field Advantage. Sharks are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Sharks offense (3.1 PPG) outpaces Blues (2.6 PPG)
- Recent Form. Sharks (30-25) in better form than Blues (24-29)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SJS 54% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SJS 56% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SJS 57% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SJS 58% (−1)
Win probability movement
SJS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Sharks defeated the Blues 5-4.
Our model predicted the Sharks would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Sharks and was a notable factor: Sharks are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Sharks and was a contributing factor: Sharks offense (3.1 PPG) outpaces Blues (2.6 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Sharks and was a contributing factor: Sharks (30-25) in better form than Blues (24-29)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Sharks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Jose Sharks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Jose Sharks
- Recent FormFavors San Jose Sharks
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Blues
Sharks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Sharks has a 59% win probability, while Blues has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA.