Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Flames (24-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 62% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 63% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 63% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: COL 64% (−4)
Win probability movement
COL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Avalanche defeated the Flames 9-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 68% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a notable factor: Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Flames (24-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Avalanche won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Rest DaysFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Flames
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 68% win probability, while Flames has a 32% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.