Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Sharks:
- Home Field Advantage. Sharks are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SJS 50% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: SJS 56% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SJS 53% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SJS 54% (−1)
Win probability movement
SJS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Sharks defeated the Maple Leafs 4-1.
Our model predicted the Sharks would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Sharks and was a notable factor: Sharks are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs rest advantage (3 days rest) over Sharks (1 day rest)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Sharks (30-25) vs Maple Leafs (27-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Sharks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Jose Sharks
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Sharks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Sharks has a 55% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA.