Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Devils:
- Home Field Advantage. Devils are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NJD 50% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 55% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 54% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NJD 53% (−1)
Win probability movement
NJD home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Devils defeated the Capitals 7-3.
Our model predicted the Devils would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Devils and was a notable factor: Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals offense (3.1 PPG) outpaces Devils (2.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.0 vs 2.9 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Devils won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Jersey Devils
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Capitals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Devils
Capitals
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Capitals
Devils
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Devils has a 54% win probability, while Capitals has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.