Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Ducks:
- Home Field Advantage. Ducks are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Ducks (35-24) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ANA 53% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ANA 56% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 57% (−1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 57% (−1)
Win probability movement
ANA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Ducks 5-4.
Our model predicted the Ducks would win with 58% confidence, but the Maple Leafs won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Ducks and was a notable factor: Ducks are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Ducks (35-24) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.3 vs 3.2 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Recent FormFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Ducks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Ducks has a 58% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.