NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-03-23 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 51% across 57 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 65% — final COL 2–WPG 4
- Offensive Efficiency (favors COL)
- Home Field Advantage (favors COL)
- Recent Form (favors COL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning at Flames Mon, Mar 23 | CGY 48% • TBL 52% | CGY 4–TBL 3 | Miss |
| Sabres at Ducks Mon, Mar 23 | ANA 56% • BUF 44% | ANA 6–BUF 5 | Hit |
| Kings at Utah Hockey Club Mon, Mar 23 | UTA 61% • LAK 39% | UTA 4–LAK 3 | Hit |
| Senators at Rangers Mon, Mar 23 | NYR 56% • OTT 44% | NYR 1–OTT 2 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Flyers Tue, Mar 24 | PHI 56% • CBJ 44% | PHI 2–CBJ 3 | Miss |
| Senators at Red Wings Tue, Mar 24 | DET 56% • OTT 44% | DET 2–OTT 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Canadiens Tue, Mar 24 | MTL 56% • CAR 44% | MTL 5–CAR 2 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Bruins Tue, Mar 24 | BOS 59% • TOR 41% | BOS 2–TOR 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Islanders Tue, Mar 24 | NYI 56% • CHI 44% | NYI 3–CHI 4 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Penguins Tue, Mar 24 | PIT 56% • COL 44% | PIT 2–COL 6 | Miss |
| Kraken at Panthers Tue, Mar 24 | FLA 56% • SEA 44% | FLA 5–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Wild at Lightning Tue, Mar 24 | TBL 56% • MIN 44% | TBL 6–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Devils at Stars Wed, Mar 25 | DAL 56% • NJD 44% | DAL 4–NJD 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Jets Wed, Mar 25 | WPG 54% • VGK 46% | WPG 4–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Capitals at Blues Wed, Mar 25 | STL 51% • WSH 49% | STL 3–WSH 0 | Hit |
| Sharks at Predators Wed, Mar 25 | NSH 55% • SJS 45% | NSH 6–SJS 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Flames Wed, Mar 25 | CGY 55% • LAK 45% | CGY 3–LAK 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Utah Hockey Club Wed, Mar 25 | UTA 58% • EDM 42% | UTA 2–EDM 5 | Miss |
| Ducks at Canucks Wed, Mar 25 | VAN 49% • ANA 51% | VAN 3–ANA 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Maple Leafs Wed, Mar 25 | TOR 55% • NYR 45% | TOR 4–NYR 3 | Hit |
| Bruins at Sabres Wed, Mar 25 | BUF 58% • BOS 42% | BUF 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Kraken at Lightning Thu, Mar 26 | TBL 55% • SEA 45% | TBL 3–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Penguins at Senators Thu, Mar 26 | OTT 56% • PIT 44% | OTT 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Islanders Thu, Mar 26 | NYI 58% • DAL 42% | NYI 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Flyers Thu, Mar 26 | PHI 56% • CHI 44% | PHI 5–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Panthers Thu, Mar 26 | FLA 58% • MIN 42% | FLA 2–MIN 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Canadiens Thu, Mar 26 | MTL 57% • CBJ 43% | MTL 2–CBJ 1 | Hit |
| Devils at Predators Fri, Mar 27 | NSH 55% • NJD 45% | NSH 2–NJD 4 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Jets Fri, Mar 27 | WPG 46% • COL 54% | WPG 2–COL 3 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blues Fri, Mar 27 | STL 54% • SJS 46% | STL 2–SJS 1 | Hit |
| Capitals at Utah Hockey Club Fri, Mar 27 | UTA 56% • WSH 44% | UTA 4–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Ducks at Flames Fri, Mar 27 | CGY 54% • ANA 46% | CGY 2–ANA 3 | Miss |
| Oilers at Golden Knights Fri, Mar 27 | VGK 55% • EDM 45% | VGK 3–EDM 4 | Miss |
| Kings at Canucks Fri, Mar 27 | VAN 51% • LAK 49% | VAN 0–LAK 4 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Sabres Fri, Mar 27 | BUF 54% • DET 46% | BUF 2–DET 5 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Rangers Fri, Mar 27 | NYR 56% • CHI 44% | NYR 6–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Islanders Sat, Mar 28 | NYI 59% • FLA 41% | NYI 5–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Senators at Lightning Sat, Mar 28 | TBL 61% • OTT 39% | TBL 4–OTT 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Oilers Sat, Mar 28 | EDM 56% • ANA 44% | EDM 4–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Blue Jackets Sat, Mar 28 | CBJ 58% • SJS 42% | CBJ 2–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Devils at Hurricanes Sat, Mar 28 | CAR 58% • NJD 42% | CAR 5–NJD 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Penguins Sat, Mar 28 | PIT 56% • DAL 44% | PIT 3–DAL 6 | Miss |
| Wild at Bruins Sat, Mar 28 | BOS 58% • MIN 42% | BOS 6–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Kraken at Sabres Sat, Mar 28 | BUF 50% • SEA 50% | BUF 3–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Predators Sat, Mar 28 | NSH 51% • MTL 49% | NSH 1–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Blues Sat, Mar 28 | STL 52% • TOR 48% | STL 5–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Jets at Avalanche Sat, Mar 28 | COL 65% • WPG 35% | COL 2–WPG 4 | Miss |
| Flyers at Red Wings Sun, Mar 29 | DET 55% • PHI 45% | DET 3–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Kings Sun, Mar 29 | LAK 50% • UTA 50% | LAK 2–UTA 6 | Miss |
| Canucks at Flames Sun, Mar 29 | CGY 59% • VAN 41% | CGY 7–VAN 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Golden Knights Sun, Mar 29 | VGK 56% • WSH 44% | VGK 4–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Rangers Sun, Mar 29 | NYR 56% • FLA 44% | NYR 3–FLA 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes Sun, Mar 29 | CAR 62% • MTL 38% | CAR 1–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Predators at Lightning Sun, Mar 29 | TBL 69% • NSH 31% | TBL 3–NSH 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Blue Jackets Sun, Mar 29 | CBJ 55% • BOS 45% | CBJ 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Devils Sun, Mar 29 | NJD 55% • CHI 45% | NJD 5–CHI 3 | Hit |
| Stars at Flyers Sun, Mar 29 | PHI 50% • DAL 50% | PHI 2–DAL 1 | Hit |