NBA report card: week of 2026-03-23 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
76.4%
hit rate
0.171
Brier score
42 of 55 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Pacers at MagicORL 88.9% pre-game — final ORL 126–IND 128
- Heat at PacersMIA 81.7% pre-game — final IND 135–MIA 118
- Hawks at PistonsDET 78.8% pre-game — final DET 129–ATL 130
- 76ers at HornetsCHA 71.3% pre-game — final CHA 114–PHI 118
- Mavericks at Trail BlazersPOR 71.3% pre-game — final POR 93–DAL 100
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Kings at HornetsCHA 90.0% pre-game — final CHA 134–SAC 90
- Kings at MagicORL 88.9% pre-game — final ORL 121–SAC 117
- Kings at HawksATL 88.7% pre-game — final ATL 123–SAC 113
- Bulls at ThunderOKC 87.8% pre-game — final OKC 131–CHI 113
- Jazz at NuggetsDEN 87.0% pre-game — final DEN 135–UTA 129
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves at Celtics Mon, Mar 23 | BOS 63.8% · MIN 36.1% | BOS 92–MIN 102 | Miss |
| Raptors at Suns Mon, Mar 23 | PHX 52.3% · TOR 47.7% | PHX 120–TOR 98 | Hit |
| Thunder at 76ers Mon, Mar 23 | PHI 20.4% · OKC 79.5% | PHI 103–OKC 123 | Hit |
| Spurs at Heat Mon, Mar 23 | MIA 36.8% · SAS 63.2% | MIA 111–SAS 136 | Hit |
| Lakers at Pistons Mon, Mar 23 | DET 78.6% · LAL 21.3% | DET 113–LAL 110 | Hit |
| Pacers at Magic Mon, Mar 23 | ORL 88.9% · IND 11.1% | ORL 126–IND 128 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Hawks Mon, Mar 23 | ATL 74.0% · MEM 26.0% | ATL 146–MEM 107 | Hit |
| Rockets at Bulls Tue, Mar 24 | CHI 35.0% · HOU 65.0% | CHI 132–HOU 124 | Miss |
| Raptors at Jazz Tue, Mar 24 | UTA 39.9% · TOR 60.1% | UTA 127–TOR 143 | Hit |
| Warriors at Mavericks Tue, Mar 24 | DAL 31.6% · GSW 68.5% | DAL 131–GSW 137 | Hit |
| Nets at Trail Blazers Tue, Mar 24 | POR 75.3% · BKN 24.7% | POR 134–BKN 99 | Hit |
| Bucks at Clippers Tue, Mar 24 | LAC 76.5% · MIL 23.5% | LAC 129–MIL 96 | Hit |
| Kings at Hornets Tue, Mar 24 | CHA 90.0% · SAC 10.0% | CHA 134–SAC 90 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Knicks Tue, Mar 24 | NYK 82.9% · NOP 17.1% | NYK 121–NOP 116 | Hit |
| Magic at Cavaliers Wed, Mar 25 | CLE 69.5% · ORL 30.5% | CLE 136–ORL 131 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Suns Wed, Mar 25 | PHX 51.9% · DEN 48.1% | PHX 123–DEN 125 | Miss |
| Lakers at Pacers Wed, Mar 25 | IND 15.1% · LAL 84.9% | IND 130–LAL 137 | Hit |
| Hawks at Pistons Wed, Mar 25 | DET 78.8% · ATL 21.3% | DET 129–ATL 130 | Miss |
| Bulls at 76ers Wed, Mar 25 | PHI 73.1% · CHI 26.9% | PHI 157–CHI 137 | Hit |
| Heat at Cavaliers Wed, Mar 25 | CLE 54.0% · MIA 46.0% | CLE 103–MIA 120 | Miss |
| Thunder at Celtics Wed, Mar 25 | BOS 40.4% · OKC 59.6% | BOS 119–OKC 109 | Miss |
| Spurs at Grizzlies Thu, Mar 26 | MEM 19.1% · SAS 80.9% | MEM 98–SAS 123 | Hit |
| Wizards at Jazz Thu, Mar 26 | UTA 55.9% · WSH 44.1% | UTA 110–WSH 133 | Miss |
| Rockets at Timberwolves Thu, Mar 26 | MIN 55.0% · HOU 45.0% | MIN 110–HOU 108 | Hit |
| Nets at Warriors Thu, Mar 26 | GSW 81.8% · BKN 18.2% | GSW 109–BKN 106 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Nuggets Thu, Mar 26 | DEN 80.5% · DAL 19.5% | DEN 142–DAL 135 | Hit |
| Bucks at Trail Blazers Thu, Mar 26 | POR 70.9% · MIL 29.1% | POR 130–MIL 99 | Hit |
| Raptors at Clippers Thu, Mar 26 | LAC 48.0% · TOR 51.9% | LAC 119–TOR 94 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Pistons Thu, Mar 26 | DET 84.9% · NOP 15.1% | DET 129–NOP 108 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hornets Thu, Mar 26 | CHA 46.5% · NYK 53.5% | CHA 114–NYK 103 | Miss |
| Kings at Magic Thu, Mar 26 | ORL 88.9% · SAC 11.1% | ORL 121–SAC 117 | Hit |
| Clippers at Pacers Fri, Mar 27 | IND 23.8% · LAC 76.2% | IND 113–LAC 114 | Hit |
| Hawks at Celtics Fri, Mar 27 | BOS 69.1% · ATL 30.9% | BOS 109–ATL 102 | Hit |
| Heat at Cavaliers Fri, Mar 27 | CLE 61.7% · MIA 38.3% | CLE 149–MIA 128 | Hit |
| Bulls at Thunder Sat, Mar 28 | OKC 87.8% · CHI 12.3% | OKC 131–CHI 113 | Hit |
| Rockets at Grizzlies Sat, Mar 28 | MEM 36.9% · HOU 63.1% | MEM 109–HOU 119 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Raptors Sat, Mar 28 | TOR 74.9% · NOP 25.1% | TOR 119–NOP 106 | Hit |
| Jazz at Nuggets Sat, Mar 28 | DEN 87.0% · UTA 13.0% | DEN 135–UTA 129 | Hit |
| Wizards at Warriors Sat, Mar 28 | GSW 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | GSW 131–WSH 126 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Trail Blazers Sat, Mar 28 | POR 71.3% · DAL 28.7% | POR 93–DAL 100 | Miss |
| Nets at Lakers Sat, Mar 28 | LAL 82.7% · BKN 17.3% | LAL 116–BKN 99 | Hit |
| Spurs at Bucks Sat, Mar 28 | MIL 15.9% · SAS 84.1% | MIL 95–SAS 127 | Hit |
| Pistons at Timberwolves Sat, Mar 28 | MIN 39.2% · DET 60.8% | MIN 87–DET 109 | Hit |
| 76ers at Hornets Sat, Mar 28 | CHA 71.3% · PHI 28.7% | CHA 114–PHI 118 | Miss |
| Kings at Hawks Sat, Mar 28 | ATL 88.7% · SAC 11.3% | ATL 123–SAC 113 | Hit |
| Bulls at Grizzlies Sun, Mar 29 | MEM 61.4% · CHI 38.6% | MEM 125–CHI 124 | Hit |
| Jazz at Suns Sun, Mar 29 | PHX 67.3% · UTA 32.7% | PHX 134–UTA 109 | Hit |
| Clippers at Bucks Sun, Mar 29 | MIL 33.9% · LAC 66.1% | MIL 113–LAC 127 | Hit |
| Heat at Pacers Sun, Mar 29 | IND 18.3% · MIA 81.7% | IND 135–MIA 118 | Miss |
| Kings at Nets Sun, Mar 29 | BKN 65.8% · SAC 34.2% | BKN 116–SAC 99 | Hit |
| Magic at Raptors Sun, Mar 29 | TOR 58.3% · ORL 41.7% | TOR 139–ORL 87 | Hit |
| Celtics at Hornets Sun, Mar 29 | CHA 40.6% · BOS 59.4% | CHA 99–BOS 114 | Hit |
| Wizards at Trail Blazers Sun, Mar 29 | POR 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | POR 123–WSH 88 | Hit |
| Rockets at Pelicans Sun, Mar 29 | NOP 34.2% · HOU 65.8% | NOP 102–HOU 134 | Hit |
| Knicks at Thunder Sun, Mar 29 | OKC 72.7% · NYK 27.3% | OKC 111–NYK 100 | Hit |
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