Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks 74% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hawks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Hawks defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Hawks are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 65% (−9)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 65% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 67% (−7)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ATL 68% (−6)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Grizzlies 146-107.
Our model predicted the Hawks would win with 74% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Recent FormFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Grizzlies
Hawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hawks has a 74% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 26% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.