New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Raptors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (119.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Raptors (39-30) in better form than Pelicans (25-47)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 54% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 75% (0)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 68% (−7)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 68% (−7)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Pelicans 119-106.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 75% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a major factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (119.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pelicans and was a contributing factor: Pelicans offense (115.6 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Raptors
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (119.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (115.6 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
Recent Form
Raptors (39-30) in better form than Pelicans (25-47)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Pelicans
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 75% win probability, while Pelicans has a 25% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.