Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Timberwolves:
- Offensive Efficiency. Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Timberwolves are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 69% (+14)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 40% (−15)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 52% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: MIN 54% (−1)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Rockets 110-108.
Our model predicted the Timberwolves would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a major factor: Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Timberwolves and was a contributing factor: Timberwolves are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Timberwolves (43-28) vs Rockets (43-27)
Turnover Differential
Timberwolves turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Rockets
Timberwolves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Timberwolves has a 55% win probability, while Rockets has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN.