Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic 89% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Magic:
- Defensive Efficiency. Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
- Recent Form. Magic (38-32) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 73% (−16)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 77% (−12)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ORL 82% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ORL 83% (−6)
Win probability movement
ORL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pacers defeated the Magic 128-126.
Our model predicted the Magic would win with 89% confidence, but the Pacers won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a major factor: Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a major factor: Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Magic and was a notable factor: Magic (38-32) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pacers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Recent FormFavors Orlando Magic
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Orlando Magic
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (120.4 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.3 PPG)
Recent Form
Magic (38-32) in better form than Pacers (15-56)
Turnover Differential
Magic turnover differential (+0) vs Pacers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pacers
Magic
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Magic has a 89% win probability, while Pacers has a 11% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kia Center in Orlando, FL.