Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 79% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Pistons (51-19) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
- Home Field Advantage. Pistons are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 59% (−20)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 72% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 73% (−6)
- If the rest edge were neutral: DET 74% (−5)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Pistons 130-129.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 79% confidence, but the Hawks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Pistons and was a contributing factor: Pistons (51-19) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pistons and was a contributing factor: Pistons are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (51-19) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pistons turnover differential (+0) vs Hawks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Hawks
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 79% win probability, while Hawks has a 21% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.