Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.9 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Celtics (46-23) in better form than Timberwolves (43-27)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 43% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 74% (+10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 58% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 60% (−4)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Celtics 102-92.
Our model predicted the Celtics would win with 64% confidence, but the Timberwolves won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.9 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a major factor: Timberwolves offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Celtics and was a notable factor: Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- Recent FormFavors Boston Celtics
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.9 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Celtics (46-23) in better form than Timberwolves (43-27)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Timberwolves (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Timberwolves
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 64% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.