Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Suns:
- Home Field Advantage. Suns are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.8 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 57% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHX 49% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 50% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: PHX 53% (+1)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Raptors 120-98.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a contributing factor: Raptors offense (114.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Suns and was a notable factor: Suns are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a contributing factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.8 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Raptors
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 52% win probability, while Raptors has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.