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San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

NBAregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Heat logo
Heat
Miami
111
vs
Spurs logo
Spurs
San Antonio
136
MIA 37%63% SAS
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

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VenueKaseya Center
Miami, FL

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Spurs (away)
Heat (home)
63%
Win probability
37%
1
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Spurs won 111-136

Spurs won in a blowout

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Spurs at 63%

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

SAS
MIA
Defensive Efficiency
Offensive Efficiency
Recent Form
Home Field Advantage
Favours SAS|Favours MIA

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Defensive Efficiency

Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)

Spurs

Offensive Efficiency

Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Spurs (118.8 PPG)

Heat

Recent Form

Spurs (53-18) in better form than Heat (38-33)

Spurs

Turnover Differential

Heat turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)

Neutral

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 3/23/2026, 8:30:04 AM

Key Players

Spurs

Devin VassellG
De'Aaron FoxG
Dylan HarperG
Stephon CastleG
Jordan McLaughlinG

Heat

Kasparas JakucionisG
Trevor KeelsG
Pelle LarssonG
Davion MitchellG
Norman PowellG

Frequently Asked Questions

Heat has a 37% win probability, while Spurs has a 63% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.

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