Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz
Toronto Raptors 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Raptors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Raptors (39-30) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 39% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 68% (+8)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 53% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 62% (+2)
Win probability movement
UTA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Jazz 143-127.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a major factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors (39-30) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
Recent Form
Raptors (39-30) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
Turnover Differential
Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Raptors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Raptors
Jazz
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jazz has a 40% win probability, while Raptors has a 60% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.