Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves
Detroit Pistons 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Pistons (51-19) in better form than Timberwolves (43-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 42% (−19)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 62% (+1)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 61% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 56% (−5)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the Timberwolves 109-87.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a contributing factor: Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Timberwolves and was a contributing factor: Timberwolves are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Rest DaysFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (114.8 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pistons (117.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (51-19) in better form than Timberwolves (43-28)
Turnover Differential
Timberwolves turnover differential (+0) vs Pistons (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Pistons
Timberwolves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Timberwolves has a 39% win probability, while Pistons has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN.