Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics
Oklahoma City Thunder 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:
- Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Recent Form. Thunder (56-15) in better form than Celtics (47-23)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 45% (−15)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 61% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OKC 55% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 59% (−1)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Celtics defeated the Thunder 119-109.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 60% confidence, but the Celtics won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Celtics and was a notable factor: Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Thunder and was a contributing factor: Thunder (56-15) in better form than Celtics (47-23)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Celtics won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Thunder offense (118.5 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Thunder (56-15) in better form than Celtics (47-23)
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (107.5 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Thunder
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 40% win probability, while Thunder has a 60% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.