Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Celtics (47-23) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 48% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 75% (+6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 63% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 64% (−5)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Celtics defeated the Hawks 109-102.
Our model predicted the Celtics would win with 69% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Celtics and was a notable factor: Celtics are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Celtics won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- Recent FormFavors Boston Celtics
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
Recent Form
Celtics (47-23) in better form than Hawks (39-32)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Hawks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Hawks
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 69% win probability, while Hawks has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.