Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls
Houston Rockets 65% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Rockets (43-27) in better form than Bulls (28-42)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 44% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 68% (+3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: HOU 58% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 65% (0)
Win probability movement
CHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bulls defeated the Rockets 132-124.
Our model predicted the Rockets would win with 65% confidence, but the Bulls won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Bulls and was a notable factor: Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Rockets and was a notable factor: Rockets (43-27) in better form than Bulls (28-42)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bulls won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Bulls
- Recent FormFavors Houston Rockets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bulls
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
Recent Form
Rockets (43-27) in better form than Bulls (28-42)
Turnover Differential
Bulls turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rockets
Bulls
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bulls has a 35% win probability, while Rockets has a 65% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at United Center in Chicago, IL.