Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Raptors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.3 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 50% (−8)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 61% (+3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 53% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: TOR 59% (+1)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Magic 139-87.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a contributing factor: Magic offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Rest DaysFavors Orlando Magic
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Magic
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 58% win probability, while Magic has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.