Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Golden State Warriors 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Warriors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Warriors defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Warriors offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Recent Form. Warriors (33-38) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 53% (−15)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 61% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GSW 68% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: GSW 62% (−6)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Warriors defeated the Mavericks 137-131.
Our model predicted the Warriors would win with 68% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a major factor: Warriors defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mavericks and was a contributing factor: Mavericks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Warriors won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Recent FormFavors Golden State Warriors
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Warriors defense (114.7 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Warriors offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.3 PPG)
Recent Form
Warriors (33-38) in better form than Mavericks (23-48)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Warriors
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 32% win probability, while Warriors has a 68% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.