NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-03-16 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 72% across 54 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 80% — final PHX 105–MIL 108
- Defensive Efficiency (favors PHX)
- Home Field Advantage (favors PHX)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors PHX)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors at Knicks Mon, Mar 16 | NYK 77% • GSW 23% | NYK 110–GSW 107 | Hit |
| Jazz at Kings Mon, Mar 16 | SAC 48% • UTA 52% | SAC 116–UTA 111 | Miss |
| Warriors at Wizards Mon, Mar 16 | WSH 56% • GSW 44% | WSH 117–GSW 125 | Miss |
| Magic at Hawks Mon, Mar 16 | ATL 54% • ORL 46% | ATL 124–ORL 112 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Nets Mon, Mar 16 | BKN 37% • POR 63% | BKN 95–POR 114 | Hit |
| Suns at Celtics Mon, Mar 16 | BOS 78% • PHX 22% | BOS 120–PHX 112 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Pelicans Tue, Mar 17 | NOP 58% • DAL 42% | NOP 129–DAL 111 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Bulls Tue, Mar 17 | CHI 50% • MEM 50% | CHI 132–MEM 107 | Miss |
| Lakers at Rockets Tue, Mar 17 | HOU 68% • LAL 32% | HOU 92–LAL 100 | Miss |
| Spurs at Clippers Tue, Mar 17 | LAC 29% • SAS 71% | LAC 115–SAS 119 | Hit |
| Pistons at Wizards Tue, Mar 17 | WSH 56% • DET 44% | WSH 117–DET 130 | Miss |
| Heat at Hornets Tue, Mar 17 | CHA 53% • MIA 47% | CHA 136–MIA 106 | Hit |
| Thunder at Magic Tue, Mar 17 | ORL 21% • OKC 79% | ORL 108–OKC 113 | Hit |
| Pacers at Knicks Tue, Mar 17 | NYK 90% • IND 10% | NYK 136–IND 110 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Bucks Wed, Mar 18 | MIL 26% • CLE 74% | MIL 116–CLE 123 | Hit |
| Suns at Timberwolves Wed, Mar 18 | MIN 65% • PHX 35% | MIN 116–PHX 104 | Hit |
| Spurs at Kings Wed, Mar 18 | SAC 12% • SAS 88% | SAC 104–SAS 132 | Hit |
| 76ers at Nuggets Wed, Mar 18 | DEN 72% • PHI 28% | DEN 124–PHI 96 | Hit |
| Warriors at Celtics Wed, Mar 18 | BOS 77% • GSW 23% | BOS 120–GSW 99 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Pacers Wed, Mar 18 | IND 28% • POR 72% | IND 119–POR 127 | Hit |
| Thunder at Nets Wed, Mar 18 | BKN 11% • OKC 89% | BKN 92–OKC 121 | Hit |
| Raptors at Bulls Thu, Mar 19 | CHI 38% • TOR 62% | CHI 109–TOR 139 | Hit |
| Clippers at Pelicans Thu, Mar 19 | NOP 37% • LAC 63% | NOP 124–LAC 109 | Miss |
| Jazz at Timberwolves Thu, Mar 19 | MIN 84% • UTA 16% | MIN 147–UTA 111 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Grizzlies Thu, Mar 19 | MEM 27% • DEN 73% | MEM 125–DEN 118 | Miss |
| Hawks at Mavericks Thu, Mar 19 | DAL 29% • ATL 71% | DAL 120–ATL 135 | Hit |
| Lakers at Rockets Thu, Mar 19 | HOU 67% • LAL 33% | HOU 116–LAL 124 | Miss |
| Pistons at Wizards Thu, Mar 19 | WSH 56% • DET 44% | WSH 95–DET 117 | Miss |
| Magic at Hornets Thu, Mar 19 | CHA 62% • ORL 38% | CHA 130–ORL 111 | Hit |
| Suns at Spurs Fri, Mar 20 | SAS 78% • PHX 22% | SAS 101–PHX 100 | Hit |
| Clippers at Pelicans Fri, Mar 20 | NOP 38% • LAC 62% | NOP 105–LAC 99 | Miss |
| Lakers at Heat Fri, Mar 20 | MIA 64% • LAL 36% | MIA 126–LAL 134 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Bulls Fri, Mar 20 | CHI 23% • CLE 77% | CHI 110–CLE 115 | Hit |
| Bucks at Jazz Fri, Mar 20 | UTA 54% • MIL 46% | UTA 128–MIL 96 | Hit |
| 76ers at Kings Fri, Mar 20 | SAC 20% • PHI 80% | SAC 118–PHI 139 | Hit |
| Warriors at Pistons Fri, Mar 20 | DET 81% • GSW 19% | DET 115–GSW 101 | Hit |
| Knicks at Nets Fri, Mar 20 | BKN 14% • NYK 86% | BKN 92–NYK 93 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Timberwolves Sat, Mar 21 | MIN 78% • POR 22% | MIN 104–POR 108 | Miss |
| Hawks at Rockets Sat, Mar 21 | HOU 64% • ATL 36% | HOU 117–ATL 95 | Hit |
| Celtics at Grizzlies Sat, Mar 21 | MEM 32% • BOS 68% | MEM 112–BOS 117 | Hit |
| Raptors at Nuggets Sat, Mar 21 | DEN 62% • TOR 38% | DEN 121–TOR 115 | Hit |
| Thunder at Wizards Sat, Mar 21 | WSH 56% • OKC 44% | WSH 111–OKC 132 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Pelicans Sat, Mar 21 | NOP 23% • CLE 77% | NOP 106–CLE 111 | Hit |
| Lakers at Magic Sat, Mar 21 | ORL 55% • LAL 45% | ORL 104–LAL 105 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Hornets Sat, Mar 21 | CHA 79% • MEM 21% | CHA 124–MEM 101 | Hit |
| Heat at Rockets Sun, Mar 22 | HOU 56% • MIA 44% | HOU 123–MIA 122 | Hit |
| Pacers at Spurs Sun, Mar 22 | SAS 90% • IND 10% | SAS 134–IND 119 | Hit |
| Warriors at Hawks Sun, Mar 22 | ATL 60% • GSW 40% | ATL 126–GSW 110 | Hit |
| Clippers at Mavericks Sun, Mar 22 | DAL 31% • LAC 69% | DAL 131–LAC 138 | Hit |
| 76ers at Jazz Sun, Mar 22 | UTA 36% • PHI 64% | UTA 116–PHI 126 | Hit |
| Bucks at Suns Sun, Mar 22 | PHX 80% • MIL 20% | PHX 105–MIL 108 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Nuggets Sun, Mar 22 | DEN 79% • POR 21% | DEN 128–POR 112 | Hit |
| Nets at Kings Sun, Mar 22 | SAC 53% • BKN 47% | SAC 126–BKN 122 | Hit |
| Wizards at Knicks Sun, Mar 22 | NYK 56% • WSH 44% | NYK 145–WSH 113 | Hit |