MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-09-21 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 56% across 70 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 77% — final NYY 2–BAL 10
- Defensive Efficiency (favors NYY)
- Injuries (favors NYY)
- Rest Days (favors BAL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins at Giants Wed, Sep 23 | SF 55% • MIN 45% | SF 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Wed, Sep 23 | BAL 56% • TOR 44% | BAL 4–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Phillies Wed, Sep 23 | PHI 54% • MIL 47% | PHI 1–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Pirates Wed, Sep 23 | PIT 56% • STL 44% | PIT 1–STL 5 | Miss |
| Guardians at Red Sox Wed, Sep 23 | BOS 56% • CLE 44% | BOS 1–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Yankees Wed, Sep 23 | NYY 54% • TB 46% | NYY 9–TB 2 | Hit |
| Reds at Braves Wed, Sep 23 | ATL 57% • CIN 43% | ATL 3–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cubs Wed, Sep 23 | CHC 57% • MIA 43% | CHC 2–MIA 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Wed, Sep 23 | KC 51% • CWS 49% | KC 5–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Rangers Thu, Sep 24 | TEX 55% • NYM 45% | TEX 2–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Thu, Sep 24 | COL 51% • ARI 49% | COL 3–ARI 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Athletics Thu, Sep 24 | OAK 54% • LAA 46% | OAK 7–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Thu, Sep 24 | SEA 54% • HOU 46% | SEA 6–HOU 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Thu, Sep 24 | LAD 56% • SD 44% | LAD 1–SD 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Pirates Thu, Sep 24 | PIT 55% • STL 45% | PIT 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Thu, Sep 24 | KC 37% • CWS 63% | KC 1–CWS 9 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cubs Thu, Sep 24 | CHC 66% • MIA 34% | CHC 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Rangers Thu, Sep 24 | TEX 45% • NYM 55% | TEX 3–NYM 1 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Thu, Sep 24 | COL 20% • ARI 80% | COL 8–ARI 12 | Hit |
| Brewers at Phillies Thu, Sep 24 | PHI 38% • MIL 62% | PHI 1–MIL 5 | Hit |
| Guardians at Red Sox Thu, Sep 24 | BOS 50% • CLE 50% | BOS 0–CLE 1 | Miss |
| Rays at Yankees Thu, Sep 24 | NYY 46% • TB 54% | NYY 6–TB 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Braves Thu, Sep 24 | ATL 71% • CIN 29% | ATL 6–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Fri, Sep 25 | OAK 42% • HOU 58% | OAK 5–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Fri, Sep 25 | SEA 48% • LAA 52% | SEA 4–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Fri, Sep 25 | LAD 71% • SD 29% | LAD 2–SD 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Red Sox Fri, Sep 25 | BOS 34% • CHC 66% | BOS 4–CHC 3 | Miss |
| Orioles at Yankees Fri, Sep 25 | NYY 77% • BAL 23% | NYY 2–BAL 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Red Sox Fri, Sep 25 | BOS 34% • CHC 66% | BOS 2–CHC 0 | Miss |
| Rays at Phillies Fri, Sep 25 | PHI 40% • TB 60% | PHI 0–TB 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Tigers Fri, Sep 25 | DET 46% • PIT 54% | DET 8–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Fri, Sep 25 | WSH 73% • NYM 27% | WSH 7–NYM 6 | Hit |
| Reds at Blue Jays Fri, Sep 25 | TOR 59% • CIN 41% | TOR 6–CIN 5 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Fri, Sep 25 | MIA 60% • ATL 40% | MIA 3–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Orioles at Yankees Fri, Sep 25 | NYY 81% • BAL 19% | NYY 6–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Fri, Sep 25 | KC 27% • CLE 73% | KC 9–CLE 12 | Hit |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Fri, Sep 25 | CWS 55% • COL 45% | CWS 6–COL 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Fri, Sep 25 | MIL 71% • STL 29% | MIL 8–STL 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Twins Sat, Sep 26 | MIN 46% • TEX 54% | MIN 10–TEX 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Sat, Sep 26 | SD 67% • ARI 33% | SD 4–ARI 11 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sat, Sep 26 | OAK 36% • HOU 64% | OAK 6–HOU 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Mariners Sat, Sep 26 | SEA 51% • LAA 49% | SEA 5–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Giants Sat, Sep 26 | SF 26% • LAD 74% | SF 0–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Sat, Sep 26 | WSH 72% • NYM 28% | WSH 1–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Tigers Sat, Sep 26 | DET 45% • PIT 55% | DET 4–PIT 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Blue Jays Sat, Sep 26 | TOR 51% • CIN 49% | TOR 1–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Giants Sat, Sep 26 | SF 25% • LAD 75% | SF 3–LAD 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Twins Sat, Sep 26 | MIN 52% • TEX 48% | MIN 2–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Marlins Sat, Sep 26 | MIA 50% • ATL 50% | MIA 3–ATL 8 | Hit |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Sat, Sep 26 | CWS 51% • COL 49% | CWS 6–COL 9 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Brewers Sat, Sep 26 | MIL 75% • STL 25% | MIL 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Sat, Sep 26 | KC 26% • CLE 74% | KC 5–CLE 11 | Hit |
| Rays at Phillies Sat, Sep 26 | PHI 34% • TB 66% | PHI 1–TB 12 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Sun, Sep 27 | SD 70% • ARI 30% | SD 10–ARI 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Sun, Sep 27 | SEA 50% • LAA 50% | SEA 8–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sun, Sep 27 | OAK 36% • HOU 64% | OAK 2–HOU 13 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Sun, Sep 27 | WSH 71% • NYM 29% | WSH 6–NYM 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Phillies Sun, Sep 27 | PHI 31% • TB 69% | PHI 7–TB 3 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sun, Sep 27 | OAK 35% • HOU 65% | OAK 0–HOU 9 | Hit |
| Cubs at Red Sox Sun, Sep 27 | BOS 36% • CHC 64% | BOS 2–CHC 6 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Giants Sun, Sep 27 | SF 24% • LAD 76% | SF 1–LAD 5 | Hit |
| Reds at Blue Jays Sun, Sep 27 | TOR 50% • CIN 50% | TOR 5–CIN 1 | Miss |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Sun, Sep 27 | CWS 50% • COL 50% | CWS 4–COL 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Sun, Sep 27 | MIL 75% • STL 25% | MIL 6–STL 4 | Hit |
| Pirates at Tigers Sun, Sep 27 | DET 46% • PIT 54% | DET 2–PIT 4 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Sun, Sep 27 | KC 25% • CLE 75% | KC 3–CLE 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Twins Sun, Sep 27 | MIN 50% • TEX 50% | MIN 6–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Sun, Sep 27 | MIA 48% • ATL 52% | MIA 5–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Sun, Sep 27 | SD 71% • ARI 29% | SD 9–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Sun, Sep 27 | SEA 48% • LAA 52% | SEA 7–LAA 3 | Miss |